Details of How did the tropical cyclone eloise impact the environment? The underlying estimations can be found in Tables 1420 in Appendix A.5. volume78,pages 545569 (2021)Cite this article. Tropical cyclones are large, cyclonically rotating wind systems that form over tropical or sub-tropical oceans and are mostly concentrated on months in summer or early autumn in both hemispheres (Korty 2013). Nearly 2 million people have died globally due to tropical cyclones. Figure2 demonstrates why it is important to differentiate between exposed agriculture and population. PubMedGoogle Scholar. This is a well-established method (Strobl 2012; Heinen etal. Their destructiveness has three sources: damaging winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfalls. The South Pacific has recently been hit by particularly destructive cyclones like Winston and Pam. To quantify the destructiveness of tropical cyclones, I construct a new damage measure based on meteorological data weighted by different exposure of the sectors. The results are particularly pressing, as tropical cyclones will continue to intensify due to global warming (Knutson etal. 2013). About 12 hours before Hurricane Florence makes an appearance, both of Duke Energy's North Carolina plants will shut down. They are, however, aware of data problems, such as incomplete reports, fluctuating quality of the reports, and correlation with GDP. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. 2. Clim Change 114(3):745768, Ghosh A (1958) Input-output approach in an allocation system. Most worryingly, the majority of all sectors experience delayed negative effects underpinning how far away the international community remains from a build-back better or recovery to trend situation for tropical cyclone-affected economies. Consequently, \(\beta ^j\) is the coefficient of main interest in this specification. Further details on the data on tropical cyclones can be found in Appendix A.1. 2020), and, simultaneously, more people will be exposed to tropical cyclones. Econ Inquiry 46(2):214226, de Mel S, McKenzie D, Woodruff C (2012) Enterprise recovery following natural disasters. In the sample used, 70% of all grid-points are hit once by a tropical cyclone per year, whereas 20% are hit twice and 10% more than twice. The authors find that after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake neighboring counties suffer from indirect negative growth effects due to changes within the manufacturing sectors. They ask significantly less input from other sector aggregates, while, at the same time, sectors from other aggregates ask more input from the manufacturing sectors. They can best be summarized by three possible hypotheses: recovery to trend, build-back-better, and no recovery (Chhibber and Laajaj 2008). Panel (a) displays the percentage of agricultural land, whereas (b) shows the distribution of population in Australia in 2008. For the sample average (0.88) of the regression of Column (1), this effect can be translated into a decrease of \(-298\)%, as displayed in Fig. To allow for the possibility of multiple tropical cyclones per year and country, I conduct two robustness tests. How did the Tropical Cyclone Florence impact the people communities? In contrast, for the agricultural sector, it would be misleading to take a nighttime light or a population weight, since these areas have a rather low population density. 2632). However, as an additional robustness test, I also show a regression where I include these outliers and the results remain unchanged. The data are collected every year for as many countries and regions as possible.Footnote 11 The sample used in my analysis covers the 19702015 period and includes a maximum of 205 countries.Footnote 12, To analyze potential sectoral shifts within the economy after a tropical cyclone, I take advantage of the InputOutput data of EORA26 (Lenzen etal. Rev Econo Stat 101, Botzen WJW, Deschenes O, Sanders M (2019) The economic impacts of natural disasters: a review of models and empirical studies. Other basins have different names for the same phenomenon: tropical cyclone. Additionally, it is unexplained how the sectors are interconnected and if their structural dependence changes. The increase in tropical cyclone losses has led to concern that anthropogenic climate change is contributing to this trend. They are responsible for a demand shock in the mining and quarrying sectoral aggregate, leading to delayed negative growth effects being persistent over 10years. Hurricane Florence reached its maximum wind speed of 130 knots (category 4 hurricane) on 11 September and made landfall on 14 September in North Carolina. (2019) demonstrate that there exist a short-term productivity efficiency increase after damaging hurricanes in the Caribbean. This paper contributes to two strands of the literature. Ecol Econ 107:333346, Le Cozannet G, Modaressi H, Pedreros R, Garcin M, Krien Y, Desramaut N (2013) Storm surges. A strong pressure gradient rapidly developed within the system as it headed west resulting in a category rating of 5 by 8 March. However, we still can learn from this analysis of how certain direct effects evolve. http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Harris IC, Jones PD (2017) CRU TS4.01: climatic research unit (CRU) time-series (TS) version 4.01 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901Dec. J Urban Econ 88:5066, Elliott RJ, Liu Y, Strobl E, Tong M (2019) Estimating the direct and indirect impact of typhoons on plant performance: evidence from Chinese manufacturers. Springer, Dordrecht and New York, p 940, Lenzen M, Kanemoto K, Moran D, Geschke A (2012) Mapping the structure of the world economy. Before 2000, only decadal data are available. The damaging winds are responsible for serious destruction of buildings and vegetation. Circle diameters represent the average proportional share on total GDP ranging from 32% (other activities), over 12% (manufacturing) to 6% (construction).Footnote 25. The procedure is hierarchical and reaches from other official governmental publications over publications from other international organizations to the usage of data from commercial providers (United Nations Statistical Division 2015b). If the official data of the countries or regions are not available, the UNSD consults additional data sources. To analyze the effect of tropical cyclones in the longer run, I introduced lags of the tropical cyclone damage variable to the main specification 4. Out of 49 parameter estimates, only 12 are significantly different from zero.Footnote 26 As expected, the heavily damaged agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sector aggregate experiences the most changes. Sci Rep 9(1):20452322. The build-back-better hypothesis describes a situation where natural disasters first trigger a downturn of the economy, which is then followed by a positive stimulus, leading to a higher growth path than in the pre-disaster period. Technical report, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA), World Bank (2010) Natural hazards, unnatural disasters: the economics of effective prevention: overview. These regions include East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Winds have lessened to 45 mph. 7. A damage function that takes into account only the exposed population would underestimate the damage caused to the agricultural sector, given the large unpopulated but agriculturally used areas in the north and west of Australia. Environmental impacts caused by Hurricane Florence Finally, I test two sub-samples, one with all potential outliers and one where I include only the countries exposed to tropical cyclones.Footnote 32. Florence was labeled a post-tropical cyclone at 5 a.m. on Tuesday, Sept. 18, according to the National Hurricane Center. 16 in Appendix A.5. 2019). 2 contains a description of the data source, introduces the construction of the tropical cyclone damage measure, and presents descriptive statistics. Hsiang (2010) also finds the largest negative effects of tropical cyclones for the agricultural sector aggregate, while Loayza etal. Admittedly, this will not fully solve potential endogeneity problems, and concerns about bad controls (Angrist & Pischke 2009) and over-controlling (Dell etal. 4 displays the average InputOutput coefficients for all countries for all available years (19902015). Latent heat is another critical factor that influences the development of tropical cyclones. Google Scholar, Albala-Bertrand J-M (1993) Natural disaster situations and growth: a macro-economic model for sudden disaster impacts. Furthermore, the results of the randomization test show that the \(H_0\) of no effect of tropical cyclone damage can be rejected at the 1% and 5% level of confidence for the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing and wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectors, respectively. Tropical Cyclone Eloise, which hit southeastern Africa in January 2021, caused widespread flooding and landslides, resulting in at least 21 deaths and. While the distribution reveals that on average, geographically smaller countries, such as Hong Kong, Dominica or Jamaica, have a higher damage, there exists a difference between both damage measures, even for the highly exposed countries. J Econ Geogr 19(2):373408, Cuaresma JC, Hlouskova J, Obersteiner M (2008) Natural disasters as creative destruction? On Sunday it moved on from Zimbabwe to dump heavy rain on some areas of South Africa's Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, authorities there said. Wilmington remained cut off for at least a week following Hurricane Florence delaying the distribution of food, water and . Evidence from India. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2512, Yang D (2008) Coping with disaster: the impact of hurricanes on international financial flows, 19702002. Moreover, extreme damaging tropical cyclones are relatively rare. At first, the circulation was ill-defined, but by the evening and overnight, persistent convection had occurred and was beginning to show signs of better organization. 2017). Hurricane Florence - Wikipedia First, tropical cyclones frequently cause a surge in ocean waters causing sea levels to rise above normal. Tropical cyclones are immensely powerful and can travel up to speeds of 65 km/h. During 6 February, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that the tropical low had developed into a Category 1-cyclone on the Australian scale . This is not surprising since the manufacturing (D) sector needs a lot of input materials from other sectors (Sieg etal. I find a significantly negative influence of tropical cyclones on two sector aggregates including agriculture, as well as trade and tourism. Each year the impacts of tropical cyclones and other weather, climate and water extremes around the Earth give rise to multiple casualties and significant damage to property and infrastructure, with adverse economic consequences for communities that can persist for many years. Section 5 concludes with a discussion of the results and highlights policy implications. Tropical cyclones can have devastating economic consequences. To be consistent with the remaining analysis, I aggregate the given 26 sectors to the previously used seven sectoral aggregates.Footnote 14 For my analysis, I calculate the InputOutput coefficients by dividing the specific input of each sector by the total input of each sector given in the transaction matrix of the data: The resulting InputOutput coefficients \(IO^{j,k}\) range between 0 and 1 in year t. They indicate how much input from sector k is needed to produce one unit of output of sector j. Consequently, the InputOutput coefficients give an idea of the structural interactions of sectors within an economy and hence help to disentangle the indirect effects of tropical cyclone damage.Footnote 15. 2014). Nat Clim Change 2(3):205209, Miranda JJ, Ishizawa OA, Zhang H (2020) Understanding the impact dynamics of windstorms on short-term economic activity from night lights in Central America. How Tropical Cyclone Eloise Impacted the Economy It is based on a physical wind model and thereby overcomes criticism of report-based damage data. Cumulative lagged influence of tropical cyclone damage on sectoral GDP growth (20years). First, I add to the research area on the macroeconomic effects of disasters. NBER Working Paper 20352. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352.pdf, Islam N (1995) Growth empirics: a panel data approach. The coefficients show the increase of the respective damage variable by one standard deviation. Moody's estimates that the property loss and direct damages from Hurricane Florence will total $17-22 billion, making it one of the top 10 costliest natural disasters in US history. Generally speaking, the proposed models offer a simple but strong way for causal interpretation of the impact of tropical cyclones on sectoral growth. Eur Econ Rev 101:441458, Chhibber A, Laajaj R (2008) Disasters, climate change and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa: lessons and directions. To deal with this problem, I will re-estimate my regression models with Newey and West (1987) as well as spatial HAC standard errors (Hsiang 2010; Fetzer 2020), which allow for a temporal correlation of 10years and a spatial correlation of 1000 kilometer radius.Footnote 20. But those that do occur will be more intense and damaging. However, since agricultural areas are seldom highly populated, using a population-weighted damage function for the agricultural sectors would be biased. Ann Rev Resour Econ 8(1):4375, Hsiang SM, Jina AS (2014) The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: evidence from 6,700 cyclones. Answer in Physical geography for Phophi #301640 The sum of these exposure weights \(w_{g,t-1}\) is divided by the total sum of the weights \(W_{i,t-1}\) in country i in period \(t-1\). In Pictures: Cyclone Eloise displaces thousands in Mozambique This is because there are regions showing increases or . 4.2 demonstrates, this effect may be driven by less demand from the manufacturing sectors. The new climate-economy literature. The purpose of this study is to advance our understanding of anthropogenic influences on tropical cyclones by quantifying the impact of climate change so far, and in the future, on the intensity . In general, this analysis reveals production scheme transformations that can result from both supply and demand changes of the sectors due to tropical cyclones. The storm is expected to affect Duke Energy's 1,870 megawatt (MW) Brunswick and 932MW Harris nuclear plants in North Carolina, as well as potentially the 1,676MW Surry plant in Virginia, owned by Dominion Energy.
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